London: The “Leave” result in the UK referendum on membership of the European Union is credit negative for most sectors in the UK, due to weaker medium-term growth and investment prospects and uncertainty about future trade arrangements, Fitch Ratings says.
Brexit will be moderately credit negative for the UK sovereign, Fitch points out adding “as we have previously stated we will review the sovereign rating shortly.” Any negative sovereign rating action would affect the relatively small number of sovereign-linked or capped ratings in infrastructure, public finance and structured finance and government-guaranteed bank debt, Fitch concludes stating, “overall we expect near-term rating actions for other sectors to be limited.”
In the medium to long term, according to the rating agency, any broader rating actions are likely to depend on factors such as the size and duration of the impact on GDP, the extent of sterling depreciation and their subsequent effect on inflation, asset prices, unemployment and interest rates.
Failure to agree favourable trade arrangements would also be a significant negative for some sectors. The UK’s status as a major international banking hub could be damaged as some business lines shift to the EU. Higher import costs and pressure on exports due to the potential imposition of tariffs would be broadly negative for corporates. The extent to which the UK would be able to limit net inward migration could be significant for some asset classes.